OIS Curve Prices in Rate Hike by December on Persistent West Asia Worries

Srijita Bose

Nandinee Keluskar

July 24, 2026 at 8:25 AM IST

The Morning Edge

AI Rally Lifts Asia, but Geopolitical Risks Keep Sentiment Fragile

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Nandinee Keluskar

July 22, 2026 at 2:12 AM IST

Dragon Claws/iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Asia Mixed as West Asia Conflict, Higher Oil Prices Cloud Sentiment

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

July 21, 2026 at 2:26 AM IST

istock.com

The West Asian Conflict and The Changing Face of The Principles of War

From AI-enabled warfare to strategic endurance, the West Asian conflict is forcing militaries to rethink how wars are fought without abandoning the timeless Principles of War.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

July 20, 2026 at 6:07 AM IST

Istock.com

India’s Markets Look Resilient Even as the Economy Loses its Shock Absorbers

Geopolitical shocks are recurring as India’s growth, household demand and policy buffers weaken, exposing a growing gap beneath market resilience

Dhananjay Sinha

July 18, 2026 at 8:22 AM IST

McKay Savage/Via Wikicommons

Geopolitics

Guardians and Decoys of Hormuz

The biggest setback for the US-Israeli campaign against Iran was not on the battlefield but in intelligence. Decoys and intelligence failures have upended plans for regime change.

Rajesh Ramachandran

July 18, 2026 at 6:02 AM IST

Via WikiCommons/White House

Trimmed Mean Inflation: Cutting Through the Noise—or Trimming Reality?

Trimmed mean inflation can cut through volatile price swings and sharpen the policy signal. But it also risks becoming a convenient metric that bears little resemblance to the inflation households actually feel.

Deepa Vasudevan

July 17, 2026 at 3:26 AM IST

istock.com

Are Indian Equities Getting Their Mojo Back?

After months of selling, foreign investors are returning. Has India quietly regained its appeal in global portfolios?

Michael Debabrata Patra

July 16, 2026 at 7:41 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Bond Rally Gives Way to a Wider Market Test

Dollar funding, oil and foreign inflows will shape not only sovereign yields but also the rupee, bank liquidity and corporate borrowing costs.

Yield Scribe

July 16, 2026 at 7:08 AM IST

istock.com

India’s Next Banking Leap Lies Beyond What Customers Ever See

India transformed everyday banking through digital infrastructure. Its next challenge is the less visible overhaul of financial markets, risk management and supervision.

Rahul Ghosh

July 15, 2026 at 6:08 AM IST

istock.com

India June CPI Highest Since December 2024 as Food Inflation Tops 5%

Retail inflation climbed to a 19-month high in June as food inflation crossed 5%, though first-quarter average inflation remained below the RBI's forecast, keeping the policy outlook balanced.

BasisPoint Insight

July 13, 2026 at 11:55 AM IST

Rupee Nears Another Goldilocks Phase as External Risks Recede

Falling crude prices, stronger capital inflows and RBI measures are easing pressure on the rupee, setting the stage for a more stable USD/INR outlook.

Gaura Sen Gupta

June 30, 2026 at 5:58 AM IST

istock.com

Five Reasons Why Modi Should Attend Khamenei’s Funeral

When Modi visits Tehran, it would be an assertion of India’s standing in the world, still fighting forces of Anglo-American imperialism in the neighbourhood.

Rajesh Ramachandran

June 26, 2026 at 11:07 AM IST

wiki commons

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s WPI inflation and merchandise trade deficit remained elevated in May as the conflict in West Asia pushed up energy prices. Both are likely to ease if the ceasefire between the US and Iran holds and energy prices remain contained.

Datametricx

June 20, 2026 at 11:27 AM IST

istock.com

Opinion

Iran’s Victory Resets West Asia, Diminishes Israel, Offers India Opportunities

The Anglo-American Empire’s Iran setback should prompt the BJP-led ruling establishment to rethink its reflexive support for Israel. India must view West Asia with new power possibilities.

Rajesh Ramachandran

June 19, 2026 at 9:20 AM IST

Istock.com

Trump’s Iran Deal: This Is What Cutting Losses Looks Like

The agreement is neither victory nor surrender. It is Washington’s recognition that a costly war had stopped serving American interests and that even Israel cannot dictate the limits of US strategy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 19, 2026 at 8:57 AM IST

India Should Discourage Excessive Investments in Equities

As money pours into equities, foreign investors cash out at lofty valuations, raising pressure on the rupee and creating wider economic risks.

Vivek Kaul

June 18, 2026 at 7:11 AM IST

istock.com

Producer Price Index to Sharpen India’s Inflation, GDP Data

India’s shift from WPI to PPI will sharpen inflation data, improve GDP deflation and align official statistics more closely with global norms.

Gaura Sen Gupta

June 18, 2026 at 4:08 AM IST

Istock.com

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Turn Cautious Ahead of Fed as Geopolitical Risks Ease

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 17, 2026 at 2:14 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

When Strategic Partnership Becomes Strategic Dependence

As Washington grows more transactional and the world becomes more fragmented, India may need to reassess how much strategic autonomy it truly possesses.

Anand Venkatanarayanan

June 16, 2026 at 6:01 AM IST

Istock.com

Corporate India Rushes to Lock in Lower Borrowing Costs

Corporate India shifts from survival borrowing to opportunistic borrowing as bond yields retreat.

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan

June 16, 2026 at 4:05 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Asia Markets Mixed as Iran Deal Eases Risk Premium but Investors Await Details

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 16, 2026 at 1:33 AM IST

iStock.com

India Trade Deficit Stays Elevated in May as Oil, Gold Outpace Export Gains

BasisPoint Insight

June 15, 2026 at 11:50 AM IST

US-Iran Peace Deal Offers Relief, and Lessons for India

The deal could lower energy costs, ease inflationary pressures and support the rupee; but for India, it offers insight on negotiating with any major power from a position of confidence.

Ajay Srivastava

June 15, 2026 at 8:19 AM IST

istock.com

RBI Can Cushion the Rupee, But West Asia Still Holds the Trigger

The rupee may avoid a slide towards 100 for now, but RBI measures cannot fully offset oil shocks, war risk and India’s external deficit.

Richard Fargose

June 12, 2026 at 8:18 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Oil Slides, Equities Jump on Optimism Over US-Iran Peace Accord

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 12, 2026 at 1:30 AM IST

Can RBI's Capital Flow Push Offset Global Yield Pressures?

The RBI has opened the door wider for foreign capital. Whether investors step in will depend less on policy changes and more on where global yields head next.

Yashveer Singh

June 10, 2026 at 8:28 AM IST

Strategic Oil Reserves: India’s Insurance Against Conflict

As frozen conflicts reshape energy security, India must expand strategic oil reserves to reduce supply risks, tame price shocks and build resilience.

Michael Debabrata Patra

June 10, 2026 at 3:37 AM IST

PIB

The Morning Edge

Risk-Off Mood Returns as US-Iran Strikes Escalate Tensions

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 10, 2026 at 1:34 AM IST

iStock.com

Has The Market Overpriced India's Rate Risk?

Markets may have mistaken a funding and BoP problem for an interest-rate problem. RBI's latest measures could ease pressure on OIS, yields and the rupee.

Yield Scribe

June 9, 2026 at 7:46 AM IST

iStock.com

Why Oil Price Spike May Trigger Supply Wave

Today’s oil shortage could keep prices volatile near term, but sustained high prices may spur new supply and alternative routes.

Anuj Agarwal

June 9, 2026 at 7:34 AM IST

istock.com

From Oil Shocks to Supply Chain Shocks, India Must Rethink Resilience

India has largely overcome the vulnerabilities of 1991. The next external shock may arrive through supply chains, technology and trade networks.

Shilpashree Venkatesh

June 9, 2026 at 3:46 AM IST

istock.com

When Good News Turns Bad for Markets

A strong US jobs report rattled markets, exposing the tension between resilient growth, stubborn inflation, elevated rates and stretched AI valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 8, 2026 at 6:06 AM IST

Istock.com

Monetary Policy's New Catch-22

With consumer inflation appearing repressed despite mounting price pressures, the RBI's decision to prioritise capital inflows over rate hikes carries growing risks.

Rupa Rege Nitsure

June 8, 2026 at 5:26 AM IST

Istock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Cuts India’s FY27 GDP Growth Forecast to 6.6% From 6.9% Earlier

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2026 at 6:20 AM IST

RBI Holds Rates, Keeps Neutral Stance as Inflation Risks Rise

The central bank raised its inflation forecast and lowered its GDP projection as policymakers assessed the impact of higher energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and monsoon-related risks.

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2026 at 5:30 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI Holds Rates, Keeps Neutral Stance as Inflation Risks Rise

The Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, retaining its neutral policy stance.

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2026 at 4:44 AM IST

istock.com

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Tumble on AI Selloff, West Asia Tensions

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 5, 2026 at 1:31 AM IST

istock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Wait Before it Tightens Policy

West Asia tensions and fuel price pass-through have complicated the inflation outlook, but the RBI may still prefer patience in June.

Indranil Pan

June 3, 2026 at 1:40 PM IST

Istock.com

RBI Denies Gold Sale Reports, Says Holdings Remain Unchanged

RBI clarified that gold holdings remain at 880.52 tonnes, countering claims of bullion sales amid market volatility.

BasisPoint Insight

June 3, 2026 at 7:24 AM IST

Screengrab from "RBI Unlocked: Beyond the Rupee" series (JioHotstar)

Crop Output Targets For 2026-27 Are Out, But Are They Realistic?

The government’s crop production targets seem to have ignored ground realities such as the looming El Nino, the West Asia unrest and a monsoon at 90% of the LPA.

G. Chandrashekhar

June 3, 2026 at 5:23 AM IST

istock.com

The Morning Edge

Investors Look Through Iran Tensions as Asian Equities Extend Rally

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 3, 2026 at 1:26 AM IST

iStocks/tawatchaiprakobkit

The Morning Edge

Risk-Off Mood Grips Asia as Iran Uncertainty Overshadows Tech Rally

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 2, 2026 at 1:48 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Hold and Use Nuanced Toolkit for a Supply-Shock World

RBI should hold rates and use communication, liquidity tools and FX operations to manage oil-led inflation and rupee volatility without adding pressure on growth and new credit risks.

Sachchidanand Shukla

June 1, 2026 at 10:39 AM IST

India’s Low-Equilibrium Growth Trap is the Real Stagflation Risk

India’s growth story is increasingly at odds with household realities. Weak incomes, falling savings and stagnant private capex, not merely oil shocks, are the bigger risks.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 1, 2026 at 5:13 AM IST

istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The Indian economy appears to be bracing for another setback, with the weather bureau projecting southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026 at 90% of the long-period average, the lowest since 2015.

Datametricx

May 30, 2026 at 10:42 AM IST

Geopolitics

The Big Picture is the Loss of US Supremacy in West Asia

The imminent US-Iran deal discusses the ownership of the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in 100 years — a victorious assertion of regional hegemony by Iran, something inconceivable three months ago.

Rajesh Ramachandran

May 29, 2026 at 11:31 AM IST

istock.com

RBI Says Bond Yields May Face Upward Pressure If Global Easing Stalls

BasisPoint Insight

May 29, 2026 at 7:00 AM IST

Opinion

The Costs of Governing India Through Election Cycles

The West Asia crisis has exposed vulnerabilities India ignored for years as electoral calculations repeatedly outweighed economic reform.

Avanti Bhati

May 29, 2026 at 6:32 AM IST

Istock.com

India's Problem Is Not the Storm; It is the Lull Before

External shocks will come and go. The real test of an economy is whether its institutions, productivity and competitiveness are strong enough to withstand them.

R. Gurumurthy

May 29, 2026 at 4:15 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Turn Risk-On Despite Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

May 27, 2026 at 2:04 AM IST

Kagenmi

Masters of the Universe: How Bull Market Prophets Turned Bear Market Lobbyists

Bull run swagger has given way to tax-cut lobbying, exposing how quickly market narratives collapse when rallies fade.

Vivek Kaul

May 26, 2026 at 3:19 AM IST

Amey Bane/iStockphoto.com

The Rupee Cannot Be Defended by RBI Alone

RBI can smooth rupee volatility, but lasting stability needs a coordinated fiscal, reform and external-sector response from the government.

Arvind Mayaram

May 25, 2026 at 7:00 AM IST

West Asia Shock Forces Banks Into a New Credit Risk Reality

Rising inflation, weaker repayment capacity and supply disruptions from the West Asia crisis could force banks to recalibrate credit risk management.

K. Srinivasa Rao

May 25, 2026 at 6:43 AM IST

istock.com

The Morning Edge

Asia Stocks Surge on Hopes of Hormuz Reopening

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

May 25, 2026 at 1:58 AM IST

iStock.com

Fuel Prices Raised Fourth Time This Month; Petrol, Diesel Up nearly ₹7.5/Litre Since May 15

With the latest revision, petrol prices in Delhi have risen cumulatively by ₹7.35 per litre and diesel by ₹7.53 per litre since May 15..

BasisPoint Insight

May 25, 2026 at 1:41 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Data released during the week showed that the Indian economy slowed amid the war in West Asia and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, though the moderation was not as severe as initially feared.

Datametricx

May 23, 2026 at 11:20 AM IST

Istock.com

Hyundai’s India Growth Story Carries a Seoul Discount

Hyundai’s India factory push is scaling up fast, but investors are starting to ask how much of the upside will stay in India.

Krishnadevan V

May 22, 2026 at 9:03 AM IST

Istock.com

Money Market Signals Fear of RBI Tightening Amid Oil Risk

Rates in money markets indicate that dealers are reacting not merely to liquidity conditions, but to expectations around the future policy path.

BasisPoint Insight

May 22, 2026 at 8:31 AM IST

Bank Indonesia Hikes Benchmark Rate by 50 bps Amid Currency Pressure

The central bank hiked interest rates by 50 bps as the rupiah weakened on concerns over tensions in West Asia.

BasisPoint Insight

May 20, 2026 at 9:07 AM IST

istock.com

India Trade Deficit Widens in April, Drags Rupee to Record Low

BasisPoint Insight

May 15, 2026 at 11:48 AM IST

Govt Imposes Fresh Curbs on Gold Imports Under Advance Authorisation Scheme

Duty-free gold imports now face a 100-kg cap, mandatory inspections, export-linked approvals and tighter reporting requirements.

BasisPoint Insight

May 14, 2026 at 3:08 PM IST

Oil Prices Lift India’s WPI Inflation to 8.3% in April, Raise Pass-Through Risks

India’s wholesale inflation climbed to a 42-month high in April, driven by fuel and metal prices, raising concerns over future retail price pass-through.

BasisPoint Insight

May 14, 2026 at 7:37 AM IST

India Approves ₹375 Billion Scheme to Incentivise Coal Gasification Projects

BasisPoint Insight

May 13, 2026 at 1:10 PM IST

RBI Governor Says Will Need to Act If Price Pressures Get Entrenched: Bloomberg

BasisPoint Insight

May 13, 2026 at 8:26 AM IST

RBI Malhotra Sees Fuel Price Hike If Elevated Oil Prices Persist: Bloomberg

BasisPoint Insight

May 13, 2026 at 7:41 AM IST

Managing Current Account, Rupee Stability Key Macro Priorities For 2026–27: CEA

BasisPoint Insight

May 12, 2026 at 7:33 AM IST

Oil Firms’ Borrowing Surge May Become Bond Market’s Next Stress Test

Elevated crude prices and delayed fuel price revisions may push OMCs into aggressive bond and CP borrowings, tightening liquidity conditions.

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan

May 12, 2026 at 3:48 AM IST

iStock.com

Govt Says Fuel Stocks Adequate, Urges Conservation as Iran War Strains Economy

BasisPoint Insight

May 11, 2026 at 12:30 PM IST

Geopolitical Volatility Demands a More Economically Disciplined India

The Prime Minister’s advisory reflects emerging realities of inflation, external vulnerability and sovereign economic resilience.

Srinath Sridharan

May 11, 2026 at 5:14 AM IST

iStock.com

PM Modi Calls for Covid-Era Restraints to Tackle Global Disruptions: Report

Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to reduce fuel consumption, avoid non-essential foreign travel and adopt Covid-era practices to help India navigate global disruptions and conserve foreign exchange reserves.

BasisPoint Insight

May 11, 2026 at 3:23 AM IST

PIB

The Morning Edge

Asian Equities Waver Amid Fresh West Asia Geopolitical Risks

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

May 11, 2026 at 2:05 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The war in West Asia and the sharp increase in crude oil prices notwithstanding, demand for automobiles has continued to remain largely unscathed.

Datametricx

May 9, 2026 at 11:32 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI Surplus Transfer Windfall to Support Liquidity, Fiscal Math in FY27: IDFC FIRST Bank

BasisPoint Insight

May 8, 2026 at 6:20 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Fragile Ceasefire Keeps Markets on Edge Amid Fresh Hostilities

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

May 8, 2026 at 1:56 AM IST

iStock.com

Op Sindoor and the Resetting of India’s Engagement with the West

Pakistan is protecting Anglo-Saxon interests in West Asia, for which it was created by the British Empire, and the US, in turn, is offering it security, while a Russia-India-China huddle promises greater multilateralism and sovereignty

Rajesh Ramachandran

May 7, 2026 at 7:32 AM IST

PMO

The Morning Edge

Asia Rallies in Risk-On Mood as Oil Falls, Diplomacy Gains Traction

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

May 6, 2026 at 1:51 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency data suggest that the Indian economy has slowed in March due to the war in West Asia, though less than feared.

Datametricx

May 3, 2026 at 5:41 AM IST

Istock.com

The Rupee’s Mauna Kea Problem: What We Don’t See Matters More

The rupee debate fixates on visible costs, ignoring hidden fiscal risks, political compulsions and market psychology that make inaction far riskier.

Vivek Kaul

April 30, 2026 at 3:52 AM IST

iStock.com

State Finance: A Growing Challenge for the Debt Market

Rising state deficits, slowing revenues and falling grants are driving higher bond supply, intensifying competition for funds and complicating policy trade-offs

Gaura Sen Gupta

April 24, 2026 at 12:09 PM IST

RBI Bulletin Warns of Risks to Inflation from Second-Round Effects of West Asia Conflict

BasisPoint Insight

April 23, 2026 at 3:44 PM IST

Deferred Fuel Price Reset Could Reprice India’s Inflation Path

Post-election fuel hikes risk setting off a staggered inflation cycle, with delayed pass-through, margin stress and tighter policy trade-offs.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 23, 2026 at 5:16 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Minutes

When Neat Policy Theory Meets a Messier Reality

The RBI’s April minutes show a textbook response to a supply shock, but the Iran conflict is testing the limits of clean policy rules.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 22, 2026 at 3:04 PM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

Market Wrap

Equities Hit Six-Week Highs as Banks Rally; US-Iran Talk Hopes Lift Sentiment

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

April 21, 2026 at 11:37 AM IST

RBI Flags Second-Round Inflation Risks from West Asia Conflict

RBI flags second-round effects as the real concern, shifting focus to persistence and expectations while keeping policy flexible and path deliberately undefined.

BasisPoint Insight

April 21, 2026 at 4:11 AM IST

RBI Tweets

The Morning Edge

Risk Aversion Rises as Hormuz Tensions Flare Again

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

April 20, 2026 at 1:27 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

March data on inflation and merchandise trade show that the impact of the war in West Asia is yet to show up in the numbers.

Datametricx

April 18, 2026 at 11:23 AM IST

iStock.com

Market Wrap

Equities Continue to Rise as Oil Prices Drop, Hopes for a Ceasefire Increase

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

April 17, 2026 at 11:35 AM IST

Unemployment Tracker

Flat Jobs Data Masks a Labour Market Under Growing Strain

Unemployment stays at 5.1%, but youth and women, especially in rural India, face worsening prospects as participation dips and pressures quietly build.

Akshi Chawla

April 15, 2026 at 3:59 PM IST

iStock.com

India’s FY26 Trade Gap Widens as Import Momentum Outpaces Patchy Export Gains

BasisPoint Insight

April 15, 2026 at 1:53 PM IST

The Morning Edge:

Asia Markets Rise as Diplomacy Hopes Drive Risk-On Sentiment

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

April 15, 2026 at 1:48 AM IST

iStock.com

India's Funds Are Absorbing the FPI Exit but Not Owning It

India's mutual funds are winning an ownership battle that foreign investors are walking away from. The question is whether that advantage is being built, or just inherited.

Krishnadevan V

April 14, 2026 at 6:10 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

March CPI Rises to 3.40%, Highest in 12 Months as Food Prices Firm Up

BasisPoint Insight

April 13, 2026 at 11:54 AM IST

US Threatens Naval Blockade of Hormuz, Escalates Iran Standoff

BasisPoint Insight

April 12, 2026 at 2:22 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Staying on Pause May Be the Optimal Policy Response to a Supply-Shock

With uncertainty elevated, RBI’s optimal response is to stay on pause and ensure ample liquidity, while fiscal policy takes the lead in cushioning supply shocks and rising energy costs.

Gaura Sen Gupta

April 9, 2026 at 11:18 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Quiet Dovish Tilt Meets a Fragile Rupee Defence

RBI signals a growth priority amid oil-shock risks, even as it defends the rupee with calibrated intervention and selective curbs on speculation.

Abheek Barua

April 9, 2026 at 1:46 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Asia Opens Subdued as Ceasefire Cracks Revive Oil, Inflation Concerns

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

April 9, 2026 at 1:36 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Stays on Hold, but Signals Flexibility in a Shifting Risk Landscape

A ceasefire eased the backdrop, but RBI’s message was clear: policy stays flexible, FX steps are temporary, and risks to growth and inflation remain live.

Aastha Gudwani

April 8, 2026 at 1:03 PM IST

Monetary Policy

Risk Signals, Not Reassurance from RBI’s GDP, CPI Projections

RBI’s latest projections acknowledge a harder macro trade-off, with external shocks reviving inflation risks and forcing policy into a more conditional, risk-managed stance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 8, 2026 at 10:43 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism Sits Uneasily with Its Own Risk Diagnosis

The central bank has identified how supply shocks will hit demand, yet its growth and inflation projections do not fully reflect that reality

Dhananjay Sinha

April 8, 2026 at 9:28 AM IST

Monetary Policy

War Breaks the Policy Cycle

The April MPC ends the disinflation-led easing phase, pushing the RBI into a supply-shock regime where inflation risks rise even as growth weakens.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 8, 2026 at 9:02 AM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

Towards Smarter, Greener, Indigenous Fertilisers

With global supply chains increasingly fragile, fertiliser security has become central to India’s food security. Reducing import dependence through more sustainable and efficient nutrient use must be a priority.

G. Chandrashekhar

April 6, 2026 at 11:55 AM IST

WikiCommons

War, Woes and Worries: The MPC's Policy Perplexity

As the Middle East conflict roils oil markets and rattles capital flows, India's Monetary Policy Committee faces a near-impossible balancing act.

Rajendra Paramanik

Unninarayanan Kurup

April 4, 2026 at 10:34 AM IST

Pavel Muravev/iStock.com

Indian Banks to Face Margin Pressure as Liquidity Tightens: Fitch

BasisPoint Insight

April 2, 2026 at 6:53 AM IST

India’s Case for Monetary Sovereignty in a Changing Order

The future of power in finance lies not in currencies alone, but in who controls how they settle.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

April 2, 2026 at 3:10 AM IST

iStock.com

Balancing on the Brink: India’s Economic Policy in a Time of Crisis

A crisis in formation, not yet in full view, as rising oil prices, a weakening rupee and policy incoherence begin to align, raising risks of a broader macroeconomic strain.

Arvind Mayaram

March 30, 2026 at 11:29 AM IST

iStock.com

Safeguarding Financial Stability amidst the West Asia Crisis

A framework for regulators and institutions to manage multi-channel shocks, combining liquidity support, sharper supervision and stronger internal risk discipline without distorting markets.

Anupam Sonal

March 30, 2026 at 10:01 AM IST

Rupee Surges 1% After RBI Clamps Down on Banks’ FX Positions

BasisPoint Insight

March 30, 2026 at 4:15 AM IST

India’s Oil Response Needs a Demand Signal Too

As supply lines hold for now, the absence of price and consumption signals risks delaying adjustment and amplifying the macro impact of any disruption

Aabhas Pandya

March 30, 2026 at 4:11 AM IST

iStock.com

Geopolitics

India Ought to Be Relieved It Isn’t a West Asian Interlocutor

Pakistan may be in the room, but India is better off staying out of a mediation process it cannot control.

Rajesh Ramachandran

March 27, 2026 at 9:16 AM IST

iStock.com

Markets Are Mispricing a Structural Geopolitical Regime Shift

Markets trade ceasefires and strikes, but miss the deeper shift. Fragmentation, defence spending, and oil risks are resetting global risk premia.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 27, 2026 at 6:33 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Risk aversion returns as Middle East tensions cloud markets despite strike pause

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

March 27, 2026 at 1:50 AM IST

White House

Shock Rules, Not Shock Responses

Lagarde’s three principles recast shock response as risk management. For the RBI, the task shifts to containing spillovers, not just inflation.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 26, 2026 at 5:13 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

RBI’s FX Strategy Shifts as Oil Shock Tests External Stability

A prolonged West Asia shock may widen external deficits and strain capital flows, forcing the RBI to prioritise FX reserve preservation over currency defence

Gaura Sen Gupta

March 25, 2026 at 2:02 PM IST

West Asia Shock Tests RBI’s Growth-First Playbook

A dual oil supply and price shock may lift inflation and strain growth, forcing the RBI to rely on liquidity and signalling to keep conditions supportive.

Gaura Sen Gupta

March 18, 2026 at 5:47 AM IST

istocks/imaginima

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Slide as Oil Surge Deepens Risk-Off Mood

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

March 6, 2026 at 1:38 AM IST

istocks/imaginima

Geopolitics

Why MBZ’s Two-Hour Dash to New Delhi Matters

When the President of the United Arab Emirates lands in New Delhi for barely two hours, it is not a courtesy call or a routine stopover. It is a signal.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

January 19, 2026 at 5:42 PM IST

PIB

The Bureau

Asian Markets Turn Cautious Ahead of Fed, Big Tech Earnings

Equities Rebound as Oil Slumps; Rupee, Bonds Rally on West Asia Relief

US Reduces Tariff on India to 10%, Replaces Section 122 Tariffs with Permanent Forced-Labour Duties

India Relaxes E-commerce FDI Rules, Marks First Step Towards Inventory-Based Model

OIS Curve Prices in Rate Hike by December on Persistent West Asia Worries

Why the Outgoing 15-Year Benchmark Gilt Is the Market’s Hottest Bond

Govt Blinks, Pradhan Resigns as Education Minister

Structural Separation vs. Vertical Integration: Cross-Ownership Reforms in Indian Aviation

The Foster Mother of Lodhi Garden